JEV/AGENT — Paper P&L

OP 0.1324ADA 0.2702APT 0.796ARB 0.203BNB 791.69BTC 85,817ENA 0.237ETH 2,712INJ 7.57LTC 70.11SOL 120.81SUI 1.22TAO 299.15TIA 0.4755XRP 1.51AAVE 180.54AVAX 10.93DOGE 0.09557HYPE 91.29LINK 14.13NEAR 4.98ONDO 0.4999OP 0.1324ADA 0.2702APT 0.796ARB 0.203BNB 791.69BTC 85,817ENA 0.237ETH 2,712INJ 7.57LTC 70.11SOL 120.81SUI 1.22TAO 299.15TIA 0.4755XRP 1.51AAVE 180.54AVAX 10.93DOGE 0.09557HYPE 91.29LINK 14.13NEAR 4.98ONDO 0.4999

Paper equity

$10,049.22

▲ +$49.22 (+0.49%)since Sep 24, 7:58 PM · started with $10,000

▲ gain ▼ lossRibbon: equity vs. the $10,000 start · Pillars: net P&L per coin · drag to orbit, hover for detail

Rendering…

Total P&L

+$49.22

+0.49%

Realized

+$46.80

price P&L on closed size

Unrealized

+$22.75

22 open positions

Fees + funding

−$20.32

fees $5.25 · funding −$15.07

Max drawdown

−4.67%

now −1.68% · kill switch −40%

Win rate

—

0 W · 0 L of 0

Profit factor

—

avg win — · avg loss —

Best / worst trade

—

worst —

Backtest lab $10,000 through each strategy's full history · same costs for all: 4.5 bp taker + 1 bp latency + spread, real funding · log scale

Trend ensemble (live settings): $10,000 on 2020-11-11 → $52.9k today (+32.6%/yr, Sharpe 1.22, 95% range 0.2 … 2.2). Worst peak-to-trough −35%; last 12 months −1.2%.

Strategy	$10k became	Return / yr	Sharpe (95% range)	Worst drawdown	Last 12 months	Since
Trend ensemble (live settings)	$52.9k	+32.6%	1.22 (0.2 … 2.2)	−35%	−1.2%	2020-11-11
Funding carry (delta-neutral)	$11.8k	+8.9%	11.60 (9.83 … 13.87)	−0.2%	+3.7%	2024-10-11
Alt/BTC cross trend	$12.0k	+3.2%	0.41 (-0.31 … 1.16)	−9.6%	−2.8%	2020-11-11
Vol-managed momentum	$17.4k	+9.9%	0.50 (-0.35 … 1.29)	−42.5%	−24.9%	2020-11-16
Breakout Rocket @ 60% vol	$2.4M	+147.5%	1.54 (0.67 … 2.52)	−71.1%	−15.3%	2020-09-19
Breakout Rocket @ 80% vol (live)	$6.8M	+193.9%	1.54 (0.67 … 2.52)	−82.5%	−27.9%	2020-09-19
Breakout Rocket @ 100% vol	$7.3M	+197.4%	1.49 (0.59 … 2.49)	−86.2%	−35.5%	2020-09-19
Breakout Rocket @ 120% vol	$6.9M	+194.6%	1.47 (0.57 … 2.48)	−91.5%	−39.3%	2020-09-19
Breakout Rocket @ 150% vol	$4.0M	+169.9%	1.41 (0.49 … 2.42)	−95.4%	−50.5%	2020-09-19
52-week-high momentum	$18.2k	+12.4%	0.59 (-0.3 … 1.45)	−24.8%	+8.0%	2021-08-23
Winners vs Bitcoin (probation)	$72.4k	+40.6%	0.84 (-0.02 … 1.68)	−60.7%	−5.1%	2020-12-14
Coin Rider: one Solana/Base coin, hourly (2x)	$6.2k	−19.6%	0.37 (-1.16 … 1.9)	−89.8%	−67.4%	2024-07-22
Bitcoin buy & hold	$72.6k	+38.2%	0.85 (0.1 … 1.75)	−76.7%	−30.9%	2020-08-20

Read this honestly: the big numbers come from 2021 and 2023. Over the last 12 months 6 of 8 live strategies lost money while Bitcoin moved −30.9%. The coin list is today's survivors, which flatters long-only results. Above ~100% target volatility the Breakout Rocket stops growing and only adds drawdown — that is why the live book sits at 80%. Funding carry only has two years of data. None of this is a promise about the next 12 months.

Strategy 1 trend rule (trend_ens, daily)

Once a day each coin is scored on four trend horizons (10, 20, 42 and 84 days). Every horizon that is up adds a quarter of the coin's position; a coin in a downtrend on all four is sold. Size shrinks when a coin is volatile, so each coin carries similar risk. Long only, no leverage, risk setting 0.6, max 10% per coin and 100% invested.

BNB

4.5% target · 4.7% held

BTC

4.5% target · 4.7% held

ETH

4.5% target · 4.6% held

SOL

4.4% target · 3.8% held

ADA

3.8% target · 4.2% held

DOGE

3.5% target · 3.6% held

AAVE

3.3% target · 3.4% held

LINK

3.2% target · 3.5% held

HYPE

3.0% target · 2.9% held

LTC

2.6% target · 2.6% held

AVAX

2.4% target · 2.4% held

SUI

2.4% target · 2.6% held

TAO

2.3% target · 2.1% held

2.2% target · 2.2% held

ENA

2.0% target · 1.6% held

XRP

2.0% target · 2.0% held

NEAR

1.8% target · 2.1% held

APT

1.8% target · 1.8% held

INJ

1.6% target · 1.6% held

ONDO

1.6% target · 1.6% held

TIA

1.5% target · 1.6% held

ARB

1.1% target · 0.9% held

Testing every strategy is scored only on data it was not tuned on, after fees, slippage and funding

Edge study · 22 coins · daily bars · out of sample 2021-08-19 → 2026-09-25 · 38 configurations tried. NO STRATEGY PASSED: none showed a statistically reliable edge after costs out of sample

Strategy	Sharpe	95% range	Beats random (p)	Return/yr	Worst drawdown	Pass
tsmom_lo	0.79	-0.20 … 1.63	0.017	+7.3%	−12.6%	✗
trend_ens ◀ trading	0.66	-0.33 … 1.49	0.013	+5.4%	−13.1%	✗
buyhold	0.46	-0.42 … 1.32	—	+6.8%	−25.3%	✗
tsmom	0.44	-0.43 … 1.24	0.110	+5.1%	−24.9%	✗
xsmom	-0.02	-0.90 … 0.84	0.286	−0.0%	−5.6%	✗
funding	-0.60	-1.33 … 0.29	0.821	−2.0%	−12.1%	✗
meanrev	-0.67	-1.20 … 0.20	0.947	−0.3%	−1.8%	✗

Replication on unseen coins

15 coins not used to design trend_ens: Sharpe 0.57 (range -0.39 … 1.40), beats random p = 0.020, worst drawdown −13.5% vs buy & hold Sharpe 0.39 / −27.0%.

Newest strategy tested: xs_carry

Daily: short the coins with the highest trailing funding, long the lowest; collect funding on both legs. Source: Crypto carry literature (Christin et al.; Schmeling, Schrimpf & Todorov), perp-only version. Out of sample 2025-03-24 to 2026-09-25: Sharpe -0.84, return −1.8%/yr. rejected: loses money after costs out of sample

Risk dial trend_ens, 22 coins, daily, after costs, Aug 2021 - Sep 2026. More risk raises return only up to ~0.8; after that drawdowns grow faster than returns.

Risk setting	Return/yr	Volatility	Sharpe	Worst drawdown	Worst day	Max invested
0.2	+5.4%	8.7%	0.66	−13.1%	−2.7%	38%
0.4	+10.1%	17.2%	0.64	−24.8%	−5.2%	71%
0.6 ◀ now	+12.6%	24.7%	0.60	−35.0%	−7.6%	88%
0.8	+14.5%	31.0%	0.59	−43.2%	−9.4%	92%
1.0	+14.1%	35.6%	0.55	−49.7%	−10.9%	95%

Hard limits now: kill switch at −40% drawdown · daily loss stop −10% · max 10% per coin · max 100% invested.

Go-live readiness 3/8 checksevery check must pass before real money · strategy: trend_ens

Paper track record10.4 daysneed >= 60 days

Uptime91.6%need >= 95%

Closed trades0need >= 15

Net P&L after all costs$49.22need > $0

Sharpe (95% CI low end)-8.87 (point 1.08)need > 0

Max drawdown4.67%need < 30%

Kill switch never trippednever trippedneed never

Strategy passed edge studytrend_ens: OOS Sharpe 0.66 (CI -0.33..1.49)need pass

Idea lab one new crypto trading idea researched and tested every day

2026-10-05Coin Rider: one Solana/Base coin, ridden hourly - Strategy 10live paper

Hourly: if flat, buy (1x) the dev-vetted Solana/Base/Robinhood-chain coin at a new 7-day high with the best 28-day risk-adjusted return; ride until it closes 3 daily vols below its peak since entry; 24h cooldown.

Probation: hourly test Sharpe 0.96 (+55%/yr, DD 55%) but it is one +160% PUMP ride; 2.3-year 4h test Sharpe 0.14, -37.5%/yr, DD 94%; random breakout picks do as well (placebo p=1.0). · out-of-sample Sharpe 0.14 · source: Zarattini, Pagani & Barbon, SSRN 5209907 (2025); Liu, Tsyvinski & Wu, JF 2022 (crypto momentum); Bui & Nguyen, arXiv 2602.11708 (2026); dev screen per Trockman et al., MSR 2019 | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5209907

2026-10-05Single-coin rider, variant A: 7-day risk-adjusted ranking + 72h-EMA exit (Solana/Base/Robinhood-chain)tested

Hourly: buy the one dev-vetted coin with the best 7-day risk-adjusted return above its 72h EMA and up on the day; exit at 2 daily vols below peak or below the EMA; 24h cooldown.

Rejected: hourly Sharpe -0.48 (-73.6%/yr) and 4h Sharpe -1.01 (DD 99%); whipsawed by hourly mean reversion even while its universe rose 75%. · out-of-sample Sharpe -1.01 · source: Liu, Tsyvinski & Wu, JF 2022 (crypto momentum); Bui & Nguyen, arXiv 2602.11708 (2026); dev screen per Trockman et al., MSR 2019 | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.11708

2026-10-03Winners vs Bitcoin (alt momentum, BTC-hedged) - Strategy 9live paper

Mondays 00:00 UTC: buy the top 30% of altcoins by 28-day return (1x equity, equal weight), short BTC perp for their combined 90-day beta; never short an alt.

Live on probation: Sharpe 0.83 (CI -0.01 to 1.66), 40%/yr, max DD 60.7% Dec 2020-Sep 2026, but all of it from 2021 (+1,269%); ex-2021 Sharpe -0.02, walk-forward 0.13, placebo p=0.057; diversifies S8 (corr -0.27). · out-of-sample Sharpe 0.83 · source: Fieberg, Liedtke & Zaremba, IRFA 94 (2024); Grobys et al., FMPM 39(4) 2025 - https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v94y2024ics1057521924001509.html

2026-10-03CTREND cross-sectional trend factor (price-only core)tested

Mondays: 7 SMA/price features (3-200d), weekly cross-sectional slopes averaged over 52 weeks, long top 30% / short bottom 30% of the combined forecast.

Rejected: net Sharpe -0.12 (CI -1.01 to 0.81), -5.3%/yr, max DD 46.2% Sep 2021-Sep 2026; with 10-22 coins the learned slopes are noise and plain 30-day momentum (0.65) beats it. · out-of-sample Sharpe -0.12 · source: Fieberg, Liedtke, Poddig, Walker & Zaremba, 'A Trend Factor for the Cross Section of Cryptocurrency Returns', JFQA (2025) - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4601972

2026-10-03Skewness (lottery) premium, market-neutraltested

Mondays: long the 30% of coins with the lowest 30-day skewness of daily log returns, short the 30% highest, 0.5x per side.

Rejected: net Sharpe -0.95 (CI -1.51 to -0.19), -37.8%/yr, max DD 96% Sep 2020-Sep 2026; the shorted high-skew coins kept rising (short leg -62%/yr), the published sign is reversed in our 22 large coins. · out-of-sample Sharpe -0.95 · source: Jia, Liu & Yan, Finance Research Letters 39 (2021); Chen & Liu, IRFA 96 (2024); Lee & Wang, JFQA (2024) - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101536

2026-10-0252-week-high momentum (market-neutral) - Strategy 8live paper

Mondays 00:00 UTC: PTH = close / 52-week high; long top 30% by PTH, short bottom 30%, equal weight, 0.5x per side.

Promising, live: Sharpe 0.61 (CI -0.26 to 1.44), 12.7%/yr, max DD 24.8% Aug 2021-Sep 2026, beats random picks (p=0.022) and 52w-return ranking (-0.13), survives 3x costs (0.54), corr -0.42 with Strategy 1; walk-forward only 0.22. · out-of-sample Sharpe 0.61 · source: George & Hwang, 'The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing', JF 2004; Ficura, PUEB WP 2023/5, https://ideas.repec.org/p/prg/jnlwps/v5y2023id5.003.html

2026-10-02Volatility-managed crypto market portfoliotested

Daily 00:00 UTC: equal-weight long basket of all coins with 60+ days, scaled by 50% / basket 30-day realised vol (cap 1.5x).

Rejected: Sharpe 1.03 (CI 0.11-1.90), max DD 64.9% Oct 2020-Sep 2026 vs unscaled buy-and-hold 0.99 and same-average constant exposure 0.99 - vol timing adds ~nothing, 0.83 correlated with Strategy 1. · out-of-sample Sharpe 1.03 · source: Moreira & Muir, 'Volatility-Managed Portfolios', Journal of Finance 72(4) 2017, https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12513

2026-10-01Kalshi in-and-out scalper - Strategy 7live paper

Rest a YES bid 1c inside wide spreads on the most active Kalshi markets, flip it 1c under the ask as soon as the trade tape fills it, bail out as a taker after 2 minutes or a 3c drop; the naive buy-then-sell is measured as a never-traded control.

Live forward test (no order-book history to backtest). Naive instant in-and-out measured at -8.1c per contract after fees on the first 95 samples; the maker version has to beat 0 after fees and adverse selection. · source: Burgi, Deng & Whelan, 'Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market' (CEPR DP20631, 2025) - https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/economics-kalshi-prediction-market

2026-10-01Breakout Rocket: Donchian breakout ensemble (leveraged) - Strategy 6live paper

Daily: nine breakout systems per coin (5-360 days) - long on a close above the prior L-day high, out below the trailing channel midpoint; size by 1/vol and scale the book to 60%/yr volatility, up to 3x gross.

Promising, live at high risk: Sharpe 1.54 (CI 0.68-2.50), 147%/yr, max DD 71% Sep 2020-Sep 2026, beats random direction (p=0.005) and buy-and-hold of the same coins (1.03), survives 3x costs; long/short variant rejected (0.78, short leg -12%/yr); 0.83 correlated with Strategy 1. · out-of-sample Sharpe 1.54 · source: Zarattini, Pagani & Barbon, 'Catching Crypto Trends' (SSRN 5209907, 2025) - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5209907

2026-09-30Vol-managed crypto momentum (market-neutral) - Strategy 5live paper

Mondays 00:00 UTC: long top fifth / short bottom fifth by 30-day return (skip latest day), equal weight, scaled by 20% / the book's own 8-week realised vol (max 2x).

Live on probation: Sharpe 0.51 (CI -0.26 to 1.25), 10.2%/yr, max DD 42.5% Nov 2020-Sep 2026, placebo p=0.066, beta ~0; vol scaling did not beat unscaled (0.66) and the last 2 years lost 11%/yr. · out-of-sample Sharpe 0.51 · source: Grobys, Kolari, Sandretto, Shahzad & Aijo, Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 39(4) 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-025-00474-9

Daily P&L UTC days

09-24

−$3

09-25

+$96

09-26

+$3

09-27

+$63

09-28

−$238

09-29

−$29

09-30

+$20

10-01

−$6

10-02

−$28

10-03

+$101

10-04

+$81

10-05

−$12

P&L by coin

Coin	Realized	Unrealized	Fees	Net	Trades
AAVE	+$23.56	+$53.55	$0.45	+$76.66	0/0
ADA	−$3.39	+$28.22	$0.24	+$24.59	0/0
APT	−$7.68	−$11.74	$0.18	−$19.60	0/0
ARB	−$2.69	−$10.19	$0.07	−$12.95	0/0
AVAX	+$1.27	+$1.86	$0.17	+$2.95	0/0
BNB	$0.00	+$10.58	$0.21	+$10.37	0/0
BTC	−$1.67	+$9.13	$0.60	+$6.86	0/0
DOGE	−$2.68	−$2.96	$0.23	−$5.87	0/0
ENA	+$30.48	−$11.30	$0.23	+$18.96	0/0
ETH	$0.00	+$4.03	$0.21	+$3.82	0/0
HYPE	−$9.36	−$4.32	$0.44	−$14.12	0/0
INJ	−$1.67	−$5.86	$0.12	−$7.65	0/0
LINK	$0.00	+$0.79	$0.16	+$0.63	0/0
LTC	−$1.70	−$7.28	$0.20	−$9.18	0/0
NEAR	$0.00	+$4.40	$0.09	+$4.31	0/0
ONDO	+$11.63	−$8.77	$0.38	+$2.47	0/0
OP	−$3.78	−$17.91	$0.15	−$21.84	0/0
SOL	+$10.93	+$3.30	$0.42	+$13.82	0/0
SUI	$0.00	+$8.91	$0.11	+$8.80	0/0
TAO	+$11.53	−$10.62	$0.25	+$0.66	0/0
TIA	−$4.90	−$7.46	$0.11	−$12.47	0/0
XRP	−$3.08	−$3.62	$0.23	−$6.94	0/0

Open positions

Coin	Side	Size	Entry	Mark	Unrealized
ENA	▲ long	679.0000	0.2536	0.237	−$11.30 (−6.56%)
SOL	▲ long	3.1700	119.77	120.81	+$3.30 (+0.87%)
TAO	▲ long	0.6970	314.38	299.15	−$10.62 (−4.85%)
ONDO	▲ long	317.0000	0.5275	0.4999	−$8.77 (−5.24%)
BTC	▲ long	0.0055	84,140	85,817	+$9.13 (+1.99%)
HYPE	▲ long	3.2000	92.64	91.29	−$4.32 (−1.46%)
AAVE	▲ long	1.8700	151.90	180.54	+$53.55 (+18.85%)
ETH	▲ long	0.1705	2,688	2,712	+$4.03 (+0.88%)
XRP	▲ long	134.0000	1.54	1.51	−$3.62 (−1.76%)
DOGE	▲ long	3,790	0.09635	0.09557	−$2.96 (−0.81%)
BNB	▲ long	0.5940	773.88	791.69	+$10.58 (+2.30%)
AVAX	▲ long	22.1500	10.85	10.93	+$1.86 (+0.78%)
LINK	▲ long	24.6000	14.10	14.13	+$0.79 (+0.23%)
LTC	▲ long	3.7600	72.05	70.11	−$7.28 (−2.69%)
ADA	▲ long	1,567	0.2522	0.2702	+$28.22 (+7.14%)
SUI	▲ long	212.3000	1.18	1.22	+$8.91 (+3.55%)
NEAR	▲ long	41.4000	4.87	4.98	+$4.40 (+2.18%)
APT	▲ long	225.7600	0.8479	0.796	−$11.74 (−6.13%)
ARB	▲ long	463.4000	0.225	0.203	−$10.19 (−9.77%)
OP	▲ long	1,669	0.1431	0.1324	−$17.91 (−7.50%)
INJ	▲ long	20.6000	7.85	7.57	−$5.86 (−3.62%)
TIA	▲ long	328.6000	0.4982	0.4755	−$7.46 (−4.56%)

Recent closed trades

No round trips yet.

Recent fills

Time	Coin	Side	Size	Price	Why
Oct 5, 12:00 AM	AVAX	buy	5.5600	11.11	trend_ens target +2.45% (was +1.83%)
Oct 5, 12:00 AM	OP	buy	422.8000	0.1342	trend_ens target +2.23% (was +1.66%)
Oct 5, 12:00 AM	ONDO	sell	107.0000	0.4983	trend_ens target +1.57% (was +2.10%)
Oct 5, 12:00 AM	APT	sell	68.6600	0.8006	trend_ens target +1.80% (was +2.34%)
Oct 5, 12:00 AM	XRP	sell	52.0000	1.52	trend_ens target +2.02% (was +2.81%)
Oct 5, 12:00 AM	LTC	sell	1.2500	70.69	trend_ens target +2.64% (was +3.52%)
Oct 4, 12:00 AM	ADA	buy	519.0000	0.2437	trend_ens target +3.83% (was +2.56%)
Oct 4, 12:00 AM	DOGE	buy	1,140	0.09278	trend_ens target +3.52% (was +2.46%)
Oct 4, 12:00 AM	APT	buy	74.8400	0.8035	trend_ens target +2.37% (was +1.77%)
Oct 3, 8:20 PM	OP	sell	336.6000	0.1349	trend_ens target +1.69% (was +2.15%)
Oct 3, 12:00 AM	ADA	sell	270.0000	0.2439	trend_ens target +2.59% (was +3.26%)
Oct 2, 11:02 PM	TIA	sell	84.4000	0.4402	trend_ens target +1.47% (was +1.85%)
Oct 2, 11:02 PM	APT	sell	54.9200	0.7823	trend_ens target +1.75% (was +2.18%)
Oct 2, 12:00 AM	DOGE	sell	755.0000	0.09434	trend_ens target +2.52% (was +3.24%)
Oct 2, 12:00 AM	XRP	sell	51.0000	1.49	trend_ens target +2.80% (was +3.58%)
Oct 2, 12:00 AM	AAVE	sell	0.5100	171.25	trend_ens target +3.22% (was +4.12%)
Oct 1, 12:00 AM	AVAX	sell	6.8300	10.94	trend_ens target +1.83% (was +2.59%)
Sep 30, 12:00 AM	INJ	sell	7.0000	7.61	trend_ens target +1.58% (was +2.12%)
Sep 29, 12:00 AM	ARB	sell	116.3000	0.2019	trend_ens target +0.94% (was +1.18%)
Sep 29, 12:00 AM	HYPE	sell	0.8800	87.42	trend_ens target +2.82% (was +3.60%)
Sep 26, 6:49 PM	ETH	buy	0.0984	2,685	trend_ens target +4.55% (was +1.92%)
Sep 26, 6:49 PM	SOL	buy	2.1300	121.00	trend_ens target +3.81% (was +1.25%)
Sep 26, 6:49 PM	BNB	buy	0.3320	770.95	trend_ens target +4.55% (was +2.00%)
Sep 26, 6:49 PM	HYPE	buy	2.7400	91.74	trend_ens target +3.72% (was +1.22%)
Sep 26, 6:49 PM	BTC	buy	0.0030	83,984	trend_ens target +4.55% (was +2.08%)